Some Controversial (?) Predictions Ahead of the Election

And what comes next

Inside of you their are two wolves. One of them is famous Trump supporter Kid Rock. The other is famous Harris supporter Eminem.

We in the states are enjoying our tradition of pre-election hysteria. It’s inescapable. Watch a football game and every single ad is about how evil and dangerous Trump or Kamala is. Every single election in my lifetime has been the most important election of my lifetime! What are the odds!

Now that I live in a swingy area I get the same thing about state reps and senators. Turn off the tv and you’ll hear it on the radio. Turn of the radio and you’ll get bombarded with calls and texts. Unfortunately a lot of them are scams targeting senior citizens which is evil as hell. A friend of mine jokingly told me “I’ve won a trip to Mar-A-Lago twenty times this week!” I hear it’s lovely during hurricane season.

Throw your phone into the river and you still can’t escape it. The signs are everywhere and it will come up in most conversations you have. I especially worry about older generations who seem to spend so much time watching the news and on Facebook, driving themselves crazy with anxiety. The Dems think Trump is going to cause the apocalypse and the R’s think Kamala is going to (I kinda think they both might be right. Gotta love that two party system!). I feel a lot of people could use a deep breath and a walk outside.

Some things are different from four years ago though. The anxiety is there for people but so is this inescapable feeling, lingering in the back of peoples heads, that they are afraid to express out loud, that all of this is bullshit. I think a lot of us are very sick of being told to hate each other. I think a lot of us are very sick of being asked for money by people thousands of times wealthier than us. I think a lot of us, more of us than will admit it, can’t wait for this to be over so we can get back to our regular lives, back to what really matters, back to trying to improve our communities and love each other. Maybe bake some bread for the neighbors.

So, in that spirit, here are a few of my predictions of what is going to happen over the coming weeks, in no particular order. I probably won’t be right about all of them, maybe not even most! I’m always happy to admit when I’m wrong, but I do feel strongly about what needs to happen post election, regardless of who wins.

1. I think Trump is going to win, and I don’t think it’s going to be very close. This doesn’t bring me any joy, as I am no fan of Trump. I think he’s a con man and I think he’s made America really crappy and annoying in a really unique way. And, of course, I think some awful things will happen if he is President again. Mostly in the “cut taxes for rich people and immiserate poor people even further” lane. Typical Republican stuff. A lot of people I know are scared of this outcome (others I know are scared of Kamala). I have a lot of empathy for them and I think in some ways they will be proven right. Despite my skepticism of the “existential threat” stuff I would never pretend that Trump isn’t going to do active harm. Or stir up people to do crappy things. I worry about that too and if/when it happens I will do what I can to help stop it.

2. Turnout will be lower than expected, and a significant number of people will leave the presidential portion of their ballot blank, or vote third party. This is the third election in a row where it seems like both presidential candidates are actively trying to lose. It’s insane. How do you explain Trump’s embrace of a character as unpopular as Elon Musk? Or his selection of zero-charisma computer dork JD Vance as a VP? How do explain Kamala campaigning with Dick Cheney?? The political figure with the lowest approval rating in generations! One of the most evil Americans of the last hundred years! I swear neither of these people actually want to be president. It’s like they’re both simultaneously throwing the election.

3. I expect there to be much lest civil unrest after this election than people expect or than there was after 2020 or 2016. In 2020 everything was heightened by Covid and the George Floyd stuff. People were all on edge. And in 2016 Trump was shocking and liberals didn’t know how to handle it. After a decade there’s just no way for someone to still be shocking, despite how hard his opposition might try. More like boring and annoying. I also think this because I don’t think the election is going to be as close as people predict. I do think Kamala might win and if she does I think it will be a wide margin of victory in the electoral college (same for Trump obviously).

4. Violence, if it happens, will be scattered and limited. This is one of those predictions that’s going to make me feel like a dumb asshole if I’m wrong. Especially because there are many people in the circles I travel who are very worried about this. But I don’t see the evidence that their are hordes of people waiting for election night to commit murder, whether they be “Antifa” lefties or “Christian nationalist” right wingers. I’m sure there will be some property damage somewhere, and I’m sure there will be threatening phone calls to some election official or something. But I expect the breathlessness of the news coverage of it to far outweigh it’s danger. Sure hope I’m right.

5. “Wokeness” or whatever you want to call the strain of illiberal identity obsessed political correctness that peaked in 2020 will continue to wane. But the “anti-woke” ecosystem will also fizzle. People are tired of being told what to think and how to behave by smug liberals, but they’re also annoyed by the panicky right wingers predicting the death of America due to the “woke agenda”. It’s like a cult that keeps predicting the end of the world. At some point you just check out.

6. If Trump wins, in four years, he will leave office, one way or another. Despite the warnings of a permanent dictatorship, this man simply does not enjoy being president. Running, yes, governing, no. Also, he could keel over at any moment. I mean look at the guy.

   

   Trump supporters with way too much time on their hands. Walhalla, MI. 2021

And here are some longer term predictions that are more relevant to my work, our work, all of our work, of organizing our communities for better things.

1. Regardless of who wins, rural, working class white people (especially men) will continue to be villainized by our mainstream media and the elites in the Democratic party. As the Dems drift further from Obamas winning coalition (people forget how well he did among working class white men) and give up even the final shreds of a pretense of appeal to rural Americans these people have unsurprisingly stopped voting for them. If Trump wins there will be a narrative pushed out blaming the racism/sexism of the heartland. Just like last time. BUT…

2. It won’t stick. People have head it all 1000 times before and it’s old hat at this point. In addition, the continued hemorrhaging of support for the Democrats among working class people of color can only be conveniently swept aside for so long.

3. Our country will continue to lack a party or candidate for peace. Despite the fact that they could succeed. We live in a time of perpetual war, where both of our parties are bloodthirsty and completely controlled by the military industrial complex. ( I know some of you don’t think this is true for Trump, but c’mon. The guy keeps talking about how his “good friend Bibi Netanyahu is doing a great job, really just a wonderful job.” You guys are engaged in some real wishful thinking I fear.) I talk to people all the time, regular people, of all political stripes, who are horrified at the amount of money that we spend on our military engagements. And for what? they’re certainly not making us safer. I know people who worry about their sons getting drafted. I know people who are prepping for fallout from WW3. Digging holes and canning food. Despite the fact that there is no peace movement to speak of in this country at the moment, I predict one will emerge over the coming years (let me know if you want to do it with me!). It’s an issue that is broadly and deeply felt, especially when tied to our crumbling infrastructure right here at home. But it won’t be led by our political leaders. They’re all too far gone, too deep in the pockets of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon. We’re going to have to do this one on our own. The wars will continue until morale improves.

4. The problems affecting regular Americans, the 80 percent of us or so who are living without real financial security or the dignity we deserve as humans, will continue apace. I regret to inform you that neither Trump nor Harris are going to snap their fingers and make housing affordable (nor do they want to). I’m sorry to tell you that groceries will still cost way too much on November 6th, and January 21st, and in 2026. The “deaths of despair” from addiction and suicide, plaguing our urban and rural communities alike, will not significantly decline. Our dilapidated infrastructure will in all likelihood stay dilapidated. Inequality will continue to break records. One of the strange things about this election is, despite how polarized we are, the candidates aren’t drastically different on domestic or certainly foreign policy (I’m ducking imaginary tomatoes and beer bottles). The notable exception is abortion, of course. But aside from that, in terms of the everyday problems affecting all of us? We’re gonna have to tackle those ourselves at the local level I fear.

5. Both political parties will cater even more to elites. This has already happened with the Democrats, who now have a base that consists mostly of humanities doctoral students in Patagonia vests. But I see a turn, post Trump, toward a different sort of elite by the right. They are, for lack of a better explanation, in thrall to a group of extremely rich dorks and weirdos, Musk being the Ur-example. but I also think of the young right wing Catholics I’ve met who spend all day holed up interpreting the apocrypha to explain why unwed mothers should be executed or whatever. They don’t know how to talk to people either. Politics will become the realm of podcast enthusiasts. And most regular people don’t like any of these dweebs. We don’t want to “study” in our free time. We want to watch the Lions and go fishing.

   

   Harris supporters with way too much time on their hands. Manistee, MI 2024

As I write it, this all seems much darker than I intend. The truth is I feel a great deal of hope about the coming months and years, regardless of what happens next Tuesday. As Tom Petty sang “there’s something good coming, there has to be”. My overall prediction is for good things, a better future for all of us.

People have been pushed to their limit by all this nonsense. You can only be told to hate your neighbor for so long before you give it up. Our nature is to love. You can only countenance being lied to, being told that a Presidential candidate will solve your problems for so long before you see it for what it is, a lie. Our nature is to seek better, for ourselves, our kids, our friends and family. We can’t see it because we’re in the thick of it, stuck in the muck, but I think we’ve already passed the breaking point. Nowhere to go but up.

I predict, regardless of who wins, in the weeks, months, and years following the election, that we will return to each other. It will be gradual but it will, eventually, be undeniable. I predict people turning off the news and walking into their front yards to feel the sun on their face and hear the laughter of neighbors. I predict young adults and teenagers (and boomers!) putting their phones away, switching to flip phones. I think of throwing a football around with the families across the street last week. More of that. I see neighbors talking and joking as they pull up the signs from their yards.

As the “most important election of our lifetimes” passes it will become clear that no one is coming to bail us out. That we are are only saviors. And we have to build something. I see local communities coming together to solve local problems, to demand better and scare the hell out of their elected officials, regardless of their party. Telling them what to do instead of asking. As the parties reject us, I see us rejecting the parties. Kicking partisan labels aside. Rejecting “us vs. them” in favor of “all of us vs. the elites”. Laughing at those that attempt to propagandize us into hating each other.

Sunrise over a lake in Benzie County, MI

Deep in my guts I feel the beginning vibrations. A rebirth of community, real community, radical, countercultural community. Community that hasn’t existed in a long time in most places. Disconnecting from the bullshit and connecting with each other. Helping each other. Building the structures that will pull us all up.

This may seem pollyannaish and utopian. But I can smell the utopia. It’s in the distance but it smells good. It’s not going to happen overnight. It’s gradual. But it’s possible. In fact I think if you look closely enough, you can already see it coming.

The other day when I left to drive my kids to school it was pitch black. When I drove by Lake Ann 3 minutes later there was a tiny hint of light on the horizon. Maybe it was just my eyes playing tricks on me. I still had the high beams on watching for deer. Ten minutes later, as we passed Long Lake, the clouds were illuminated in fuschia, the lake reflecting peach. The warm turned everything it touched perfect. My one year old yelled from the back seat: “SO BEAUTIFUL!!”

Gradually then suddenly. I predict it’s going to happen like that.

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